Market Outlook #186 (eighth August 2022)
Whats up, and welcome to the 186th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s submit, I will likely be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, Tron, Algorand, THORChain, Enjin and Ispolink.
As ever, when you’ve got any requests for subsequent Monday’s Outlook, do let me know.
Day by day:
Market Cap: $460.433bn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD, on the weekly timeframe we will see that final week was an inside week, with a really tight weekly vary that culminated in value marginally shut above the 200wMA as soon as once more. Given the within week, we’ve got the potential for inside week failure right here, and this morning we’ve got seen value take out final week’s excessive at $23,650 and now make a transfer in direction of the prior weekly excessive at $24,545. If we see rejection early this week from up inside this vary – notably if we take out $24,545 – and value begins to maneuver again beneath final week’s excessive, we could also be organising for that inside week failure, the place we may then count on value to take out the underside of the weekly vary subsequently and thus transfer again beneath the 200wMA in direction of prior resistance turned help at $21.9k.
Dropping into the day by day, if we do see that SFP of $24.5k result in a breakdown and eventual shut beneath $22.5k, we then have a break in market construction following rejection from a key stage and a liquidity sweep, which isn’t promising for bulls short-term. In that situation, it’s doubtless momentum indicators will break down, after which it’s all on that sturdy $21.9k help to stay help – break again beneath that and I feel we return to the $19k space to retest the underside of the vary as help. If, nonetheless, we don’t reject up close to $24.5k and as an alternative begin to shut and consolidate above it, a weekly shut above the extent invalidates inside week failure and I’m then searching for longs subsequent week to proceed to experience the rally greater and fill the hole again into $28.7k.
Day by day:
Day by day:
Worth: $1770 (0.0735 BTC)
Market Cap: $215.773bn
Ideas: Starting with ETH/USD, we will see from the weekly that we proceed to consolidate proper round that all-important prior help turned resistance stage at $1728, with final week closing just under the extent at $1700 and portray an inside week, similar to on BTC. Once more, this units us up for a attainable prime for the rally in a significant space or for a large reclaim and doubtlessly for one more 25-30% rally into $2300. For the bears, what you’ll wish to see is value to take out the excessive at $1802 after which reject and shut the week again beneath $1728, opening up the probability of a minimum of the $1560 swing-low getting taken out. Shifting into the day by day, we will see that if that low will get taken out following a sweep of $1800, we’ve got a reversion to bearish market construction, and if that happens with momentum indicators pointing in direction of exhaustion, I feel we’re again in promote the rally mode, a minimum of again into the $1290 space to retest the breakout stage as help. If we will shut above $1800 and consolidate and decrease timeframe momentum continues to level greater, I will likely be searching for dips to lengthy over the subsequent couple of weeks with a major goal of the 200dMA at $2275.
Dropping into ETH/BTC, we will see that value has closed above the weekly trendline resistance for a second consecutive week having retested the mid-range as help. That is promising, and I might count on continuation greater from right here in direction of the 2022 open and the high quality round 0.08-0.082 to observe, so long as we now maintain above 0.069. If we break again beneath that stage – notably if we will’t take out 0.076 and print a higher-high – I feel we’re going to unwind most of this rally again in direction of vary help. If we have a look at the day by day, there’s some exhaustion showing on momentum indicators as ETH/BTC pushes up right here however nothing but in price-action to recommend a prime – it is just if value begins to interrupt down from right here and return to bearish market construction can we begin searching for ETH weak point transferring ahead, so don’t get trapped into shorting ETH early.
Day by day:
Day by day:
Worth: $0.54 (2256 satoshis)
Market Cap: $18.319bn
Ideas: Starting with ADA/USD, we will see from the weekly that value continues to consolidate beneath the 200wMA, with the pair range-bound between help at $0.42 and resistance round $0.56 for a number of weeks now. Till that vary breaks to both facet, that is simply chop and isn’t one thing I’m keen on. If we break and shut above the 200wMA, there’s a potential lengthy play into the $0.68-$0.75 vary assuming the setup presents itself a threat/rewards is beneficial, however to be sincere it doesn’t seem like that’s one thing I’ll wish to play. As a substitute, if we do break greater, I’d slightly search for exhaustion as value comes into $0.68 after which search for shorts following a reversion to day by day bearish construction. If we drop into the day by day, we will see that value would even be contesting the 200dMA up in that vary, in addition to the trendline resistance from the all-time excessive, so loads of confluence for a prime in that space if we do break greater from right here. If, nonetheless, $0.56 continues to cap value and we break $0.42 and shut beneath it, I’m completely searching for extra draw back into $0.27 as the subsequent stage, with $0.20 the subsequent main help beneath that.
Turning to ADA/BTC, we will see from the weekly that value has been consolidating above help at 1975 satoshis for a couple of weeks now however continues to be capped by reclaimed resistance at 2530 and beneath the decrease excessive at 2750 satoshis. Very similar to the greenback pair, we’re range-bound right here with no indication as to course: if we see value shut the weekly again beneath 1975, I might count on to see the 200wMA at 1700 satoshis retested as help on the very least; conversely, break and shut above 2530 and I feel we take out the decrease excessive, following which the response turns into key, as a result of a weekly shut at the next excessive turns construction bullish off a key stage, whereas an SFP of that top and subsequent breakdown opens up extra brief alternatives for a return to that 200wMA. Nothing clear for now.
Day by day:
Day by day:
Worth: $0.071 (293 satoshis)
Market Cap: $6.539bn
Ideas: If we glance firstly at TRX/USD, we will see from the weekly that value has been chopping round above the 2020 highs as help at $0.054, with the previous few weeks of price-action seeing the pair chop greater in tight weekly ranges into reclaimed resistance at $0.071. We at the moment are sitting proper up towards that resistance with trendline resistance additionally looming overhead. If the pair breaks greater following this era of tight consolidation and might shut the weekly above the trendline, I will likely be searching for longs again in direction of the subsequent resistance stage at $0.089. If we drop into the day by day, we will see that that is actually very uneven round present ranges and looking out forward it look like forming a descending triangle into that 2020 excessive, which is bearish. If that $0.054 stage had been to interrupt once more and value held beneath it, I feel we may comfortably search for shorts all the way in which again in direction of $0.027 as the subsequent main help stage.
Turning to TRX/BTC, we will see that value is consolidating above the 200wMA and above prior resistance turned help round 260 satoshis, which is promising for bulls. If we dip from right here into that 260 stage, there’s a case to be made for an extended play from there again in direction of 350 satoshis, as invalidation is extraordinarily tight on an in depth again beneath the 200wMA at 245, so threat reward for me can be too beneficial to not take that. If, nonetheless, we shut again beneath the 200wMA, after all that place is exited however the pair additionally seems prefer it has deviation key resistance and a key MA after which damaged down, and I might count on most of this rally to be worn out again in direction of the bottom of the consolidation round 150-175 satoshis.
Day by day:
Day by day:
Worth: $0.36 (1526 satoshis)
Market Cap: $2.553bn
Ideas: Wanting firstly at ALGO/USD, we will see that value is simply breaking above prior help turned resistance at $0.34 and is trying to try a trendline breakout from the 2021 excessive. If we will shut this week above $0.38, it seems to me just like the pair is prepared for some reduction again into main reclaimed resistance at $0.48, and I will likely be searching for any alternative to get lengthy early subsequent week in that occasion. If nonetheless we value wick above $0.38 after which shut this week again beneath $0.34, it seems just like the pair continues to be in consolidation mode and we may look to purchase vary help at $0.29 with a really tight cease on an in depth beneath that stage, or simply await a clear breakout to focus on that $0.50 area.
Turning to ALGO/BTC, we’ve got reclaimed help at 1350 satoshis however the pair is struggling round prior help at 1560 and stays capped by trendline resistance from the all-time excessive. Ideally, bulls now wish to see 1350 proceed to carry as the next low, and value curl greater to take out trendline resistances and shut above it. In that occasion, we will count on the prior decrease excessive and reclaimed resistance at 2200 satoshis to be retested. If, nonetheless, the trendline holds agency and value loses 1350, I feel we take out the swing-low at 1175 into help at 1080 satoshis, which is the final actual help above the all-time excessive.
Day by day:
Day by day:
Worth: $2.96 (12,300 satoshis)
Market Cap: $980.345mn
Ideas: Starting with RUNE/USD, we will see that value bounced above prior resistance turned help at $1.22 after at 93% drawdown from the all-time excessive and has been chopping greater for a few months on declining quantity, with the previous few weeks of price-action seeing rejection from main help turned resistance at $2.98. It is a pivotal stage and one the place we might count on the rally to be capped if the downtrend persists, the place if we now begin to see decrease timeframe breakdowns from this stage we will start to scale into shorts focusing on $1.22. If, nonetheless, there’s sufficient juice to reclaim this stage, the subsequent resistance stage is at $4.40 and so we may look to purchase $3 as reclaimed help and exit on a breakdown again beneath the extent. Wanting on the day by day, we will see that trendline help can be holding agency for now and that there are not any indicators of exhaustion simply but, so if we do break and maintain above $3, we may use the newest swing-low as invalidation for longs. Additional, if we see value fake-out above the extent after which breakdown beneath trendline help, I might look to brief $2.98 or as near it as attainable and search for the entire rally to be erased.
Turning to RUNE/BTC, we will see that value is consolidating above help at 8800 satoshis however beneath resistance a 12800 satoshis, the place if that latter stage provides method right here there’s little or no resistance all the way in which up into 19k satoshis, and thus can be the kind of vary we wish to play to the upside. If 12.8k satoshis continues to cap value, and the greenback pair begins to interrupt trendline help and revert market construction, I feel the BTC pair begins one other leg decrease into the subsequent stage of help at 6200 satoshis.
Day by day:
Day by day:
Worth: $0.717 (2974 satoshis)
Market Cap: $643.15mn
Ideas: Starting with ENJ/USD, we will see from the weekly that value is pushing up towards the 200wMA from beneath as resistance, in addition to trendline resistance and prior help at $0.72, offering an excessive amount of confluence on this space for the reduction rally to subside and for value to show decrease. If we drop into the day by day for extra readability, the momentum indicators aren’t but pointing to exhaustion, however for contemporary shorts what I want to see is a spike above $0.72 to be adopted by a break again beneath $0.70, trapping breakout longs. This is able to open up draw back again into a minimum of $0.55 to retest that space as help, the place if that stage fails the $0.45 help change into important for the pair to not start one other leg decrease all the way in which into $0.26. If we begin to consolidate between $0.45-0.55 once more for a protracted time period, that’s the kind of PA I wish to be getting concerned in. Alternatively, if we break and shut above trendline resistance right here, I might look to purchase $0.72 as help with a goal of $0.93 adopted by the 200dMA at $1.11.
Turning to ENJ/BTC, not like the greenback pair we’ve got deviated beneath the 200wMA and nearly instantly reclaimed it, in addition to prior resistance turned help at 2400 satoshis. Since, we’ve got retested that space as help and now damaged greater as soon as once more, closing above trendline resistance and rallying in direction of reclaimed resistance at 3370. That is the place I might count on the rally to begin to diminish, which aligns with our expectations on the greenback pair, however given the construction right here, I might be very eager to start out shopping for ENJ if we then return again to the 200wMA and 2400 satoshi help base as a re-accumulation zone, with invalidation on an in depth again beneath the 200wMA, or for those who’re searching for a wider cease then on a break beneath 1700, trying to maintain that spot place for the subsequent cycle. If this space does fail as a cyclical base, the subsequent space of curiosity beneath is all the way in which down close to 950 satoshis.
Day by day:
Day by day:
Worth: $0.00098 (4 satoshis)
Market Cap: $2.718mn
Ideas: I want to preface this by mentioning that Ispolink is a subscriber request and so I’m not sure on its fundamentals, however it is vitally a lot a microcap and so if you’re keen on it, concentrate on low liquidity, notably in present situations.
Given it has solely been buying and selling for somewhat over a 12 months, each pairs look similar and so I’ll go for its Greenback pair for evaluation.
ISP/USD, we will see that it has performed out what seems like a traditional altcoin market cycle, retracing nearly its complete bull cycle off the all-time low, discovering help at $0.0007 in June and persevering with to now maintain above that stage because the final stage of help above that all-time low at $0.00055. If that stage continues to carry, I might wish to see the pair proceed this uneven consolidation above it for a number of extra weeks while massive holders are seen to be accumulating, after which look to purchase as near $0.0007 as attainable, with the all-time low as my invalidation. This seems like it’s coming into the despair stage of the market cycle, which might final many months for microcaps, so I wouldn’t be dashing in. Construction could be very good right here although, so if the basics do get up, that is one to maintain in your watchlist.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to go away any feedback or questions beneath, or e-mail me immediately at firstname.lastname@example.org.